Estimates on how many people still play spore? (Legally not pirated)

This message was edited 10 times. Last update was at 10/12/2008 20:02:07

Since you won't be given a straight number I've taken a guess.

Since October 6th, there have been roughly 6 million new creations. Lets buffet that and say 7 Million.

Actual amount: 36,361,595 - 30,000,000 = 6,361,595 so I was generous.

If 1 Million people are still playing that means everyone has only made 7 new creatures (that includes recolors and evolutions) in 6 days. Or 1.16 creature a day.

So. Then as follows:

1 Million == 7 Creatures per week.
750,000 = 9.3 Creatures per week..
500,000 = 14 Creatures per week.
250,000 = 28 Creatures per week.
100,000 = 56 Creatures per week.
50,000 = 140 Creatures per week.

So ask yourself. How many creatures have YOU made in 6 days? I'm quite certain a math buff around here will explain how my math is wrong. I want that, I would like people to take this thread to post better equations using the evidence at hand.

This is what I've figured though.

Considering most people I see how around 21-30 new creations since the 6th it would appear that 3/4 of the people playing spore have left. Or are only using pre-made things.

This means that 75% of the playerbase has given up on SPORE (or are hiding in the SPOREpedia because when I look around I see a high average of my checks being 21-30 creations). Keeping in mind that at least a small percentage of them check EVERY WEEK to see if there is a patch and leave after seeing there isn't one (look at the Xfire graph. Every 7 days it spikes momentarily).

NOTE: Thanks to ThrowerOfStones for catching my HUGE typo!

PS. Which btw. To all you XFire naysayers...supports their findings. Most people did quit playing ;p.

Addendum: If it is true they have 2 million customers that would also mean they have either a 50% mortality rate on clients or we are some of the most uncreative creators in the SPORE world.

I would think I play Spore more than most people, and I probably make 15 or so creatures every 2-3 days. So... 1,000,000+

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 10/12/2008 19:31:36

ThrowerOfStones wrote:I would think I play Spore more than most people, and I probably make 15 or so creatures every 2-3 days. So... 1,000,000+

Dude. You totally got your math wrong.

If you made 15 every 2-3 days that's 5 or so a day or 30 a week. You would be looking at 250k players not 1 million.

Legitimately, I'd wager about a million. We also have about a half million playing pirated copies.

Oh, and also... if they have 21-30 new creations since the sixth, that means that they have made about 3-5 creatures a day, meaning that there would in fact be more than a million users.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 10/12/2008 19:50:21

theultimateend wrote:

ThrowerOfStones wrote:I would think I play Spore more than most people, and I probably make 15 or so creatures every 2-3 days. So... 1,000,000+

Dude. You totally got your math wrong.

If you made 15 every 2-3 days that's 5 or so a day or 30 a week. You would be looking at 250k players not 1 million.

No, I didn't. 15 creatures every three days is 5 creatures a day. 5 Creatures a day is more than a million users by your table.

ThrowerOfStones wrote:Oh, and also... if they have 21-30 new creations since the sixth, that means that they have made about 3-5 creatures a day, meaning that there would in fact be more than a million users.

So how does a million players only make 6 million creations in a week?

Am I missing something somewhere?

Oh, *shakes head* actually, your table is just wrong. You should fix it.

This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at 10/12/2008 19:35:11

ThrowerOfStones wrote:

theultimateend wrote:

ThrowerOfStones wrote:I would think I play Spore more than most people, and I probably make 15 or so creatures every 2-3 days. So... 1,000,000+

Dude. You totally got your math wrong.

If you made 15 every 2-3 days that's 5 or so a day or 30 a week. You would be looking at 250k players not 1 million.

No, I didn't. 15 creatures every three days is 5 creatures a day. 5 Creatures a day is more than a million users by your little table.

HA! You are right! I messed up. I meant per week *embarrased*.

ThrowerOfStones wrote:Oh, *shakes head* actually, your table is just wrong. You should fix it.

I know I feel like a SPORE

. Thanks for the heads up.

I gave you at 5 ***** for noticing that

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 10/12/2008 19:38:24

A big issue with this form of estimation is that in space stage, you don't make much stuff, usually. I've typically been every 2-3 days making a new civilization and playing through to space, while dinking around in my space stage save on occasion. However, anyone who is just playing space will probably not be making any new creations at all, or at the very most, just a few with the creature tweaker or for the occasional colony they want to customize.

That said, if the rate is going down, then interest in the game probably is decreasing. I don't know what the rate was before that six day period, though. Given 3 million were out before the game was releases, and 36 million are out now, and the game has been out, what, forty days? That would mean the rate is a bit under a million a day since release, which means 6 million in six days is actually an increase.

Assuming my math is right.

This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at 10/12/2008 19:41:33

ThrowerOfStones wrote:A big issue with this form of estimation is that in space stage, you don't make much stuff, usually. I've typically been every 2-3 days making a new civilization and playing through to space, while dinking around in my space stage save on occasion. However, anyone who is just playing space will probably not be making any new creations at all, or at the very most, just a few with the creature tweaker or for the occasional colony they want to customize.

That said, if the rate is going down, then interest in the game probably is decreasing. I don't know what the rate was before that six day period, though. Given 3 million were out before the game was releases, and 36 million are out now, and the game has been out, what, forty days? That would mean the rate is a bit under a million a day since release, which means 6 million in six days is actually an increase.

Assuming my math is right.

Well I'm just working off of what we have right now from 6 days ago until now. I don't think it matters what it started at. But I'm not a math major

.

Also keep in mind I checked and nearly everyone I looked at had at least 20 if not 30 new creations since the 6th

.

Just remember I'm working off EA's own model for success, the amount of creations made.

Given the new ranges, I am say it's safe to say that only 250,000 are still playing.

theultimateend wrote:Since you won't be given a straight number I've taken a guess.

Since October 6th, there have been roughly 6 million new creations. Lets buffet that and say 7 Million.

Actual amount: 36,361,595 - 30,000,000 = 6,361,595 so I was generous.

If 1 Million people are still playing that means everyone has only made 7 new creatures (that includes recolors and evolutions) in 6 days. Or 1.16 creature a day.

So. Then as follows:

1 Million == 7 Creatures per week.
750,000 = 9.3 Creatures per week..
500,000 = 14 Creatures per week.
250,000 = 28 Creatures per week.
100,000 = 56 Creatures per week.
50,000 = 140 Creatures per week.

So ask yourself. How many creatures have YOU made in 6 days? I'm quite certain a math buff around here will explain how my math is wrong. I want that, I would like people to take this thread to post better equations using the evidence at hand.

This is what I've figured though.

Considering most people I see how around 21-30 new creations since the 6th it would appear that 3/4 of the people playing spore have left. Or are only using pre-made things.

This means that 75% of the playerbase has given up on SPORE (or are hiding in the SPOREpedia because when I look around I see a high average of my checks being 21-30 creations). Keeping in mind that at least a small percentage of them check EVERY WEEK to see if there is a patch and leave after seeing there isn't one (look at the Xfire graph. Every 7 days it spikes momentarily).

NOTE: Thanks to ThrowerOfStones for catching my HUGE typo!

PS. Which btw. To all you XFire naysayers...supports their findings. Most people did quit playing ;p.

Why does it even matter to you?

I stopped last night until the next patch. I might mess with the creature/building/vehicle creators.. but I won't game until patch 2. I did a dumb thing yesterday and downloaded patch 1 for my MAC. The game in mostly unplayable right now.

Oh yea. I haven't made a single creature since forever except my game creature. Though I might make a couple this week.

This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at 10/12/2008 19:52:53

Another intresting bit of maths to consider is how many even finished or reached the space phase before they got bored.

Considering there is 2 million players, and 36 million creations, that averages 18 creations per user. If you add together the number of creations a player will likely make from start to finish in a single game, it comes to about 16 at a conservative guess; which is about right for the numbers.

But how many players do you see who have far more than just 18 creations? - I have enough creations to my name to account for nearly 4 players worth of stuff, and I'm not even that big on creating. I know people with over 300 creations to their name. This distorts the average since for every 18 additional creations ascribed to one person, it's equivalent og another player not making anything at all, and it makes me wonder just how many people got fed up before they even reached the space phase.

(I've stopped playing Spore, I removed SecureROM after my OS mysteriously began to fall apart and had to be reinstalled. SecureROM is the most recent thing i installed it's worth noting. Back to playing/modding Oblivion now and tempted to play X3: Reunion again for nostalgia sake and the fact it's a million times better as space than the space phase, all while I wait for Fallout 3)