One year's change is called "weather," not climate. You need a decades long trend in the weather for it to be considered climate change. Year-to-year variance can be fairly extreme even in the absence of any longer term climate shifts.

If you compared this year to a much colder year like 2005-2006 you'd see a massive change in the average temperature. It's not due to climate change though, just random deviations in the Jet Stream. When you average it out over many years then you can see long term climate trends.

We are contributing a lot to global warming. Sure, it may happen anyway, but we are speeding it up a lot. Look up the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM). It is basically almost just like what is going to happen in several decade's time. Millions of years of carbon build-up being released in a geological instant. It turned lush rainforests into dry savannahs and really shook things up.

I would not say Global Warming has not been disproved, I would say it remains unproven. There simply has not been enough time to estimate whether the contents of the theory are actually provable.

Drew980 wrote:I would not say Global Warming has not been disproved, I would say it remains unproven. There simply has not been enough time to estimate whether the contents of the theory are actually provable.

So basicly it is a world-wide accepted conspiracy?

titaniccreatures wrote:

Drew980 wrote:I would not say Global Warming has not been disproved, I would say it remains unproven. There simply has not been enough time to estimate whether the contents of the theory are actually provable.

So basicly it is a world-wide accepted conspiracy?

If your primary source of news is Tea-Party blogs.

DragonEye4 wrote:

titaniccreatures wrote:

Drew980 wrote:I would not say Global Warming has not been disproved, I would say it remains unproven. There simply has not been enough time to estimate whether the contents of the theory are actually provable.

So basicly it is a world-wide accepted conspiracy?

If your primary source of news is Tea-Party blogs.

There is a simple logic experiment to prove this wrong:

Let's say that 1,000,000 people are privy to this "conspiracy." And that there is a 99.99% chance that they will not divulge it, assuming the penalty is death for doing so. Put it into Google Calculator (0.9999^1000000) and the result is 3.7*10^-42% chance of divulging. And Drew, the temperature trends show that over the course of decades, temperature is increasing at rates never before achieved.

Jabba the Hutt wrote:

And Drew, the temperature trends show that over the course of decades, temperature is increasing at rates never before achieved.

They have not been tracking temperature for millions of years, they cant prove that either. Tracking temperature is a rather new practice when put next to how long temperature has existed on the planet. Just a few decades is a rather small period in the course of millions of years. =/

We have ice core samples that can give us an approximate temperature range for the last 400,000 years or so



and we can make less accurate approximations for fairly far back using sediment cores.

The Earth's temperature has bounced around fairly majorly on these longer term scales, which is not surprising given the changes of solar luminosity, Earth's geological activity, and continent arrangement over those spans.

Jabba the Hutt wrote:

DragonEye4 wrote:

titaniccreatures wrote:

Drew980 wrote:I would not say Global Warming has not been disproved, I would say it remains unproven. There simply has not been enough time to estimate whether the contents of the theory are actually provable.

So basicly it is a world-wide accepted conspiracy?

If your primary source of news is Tea-Party blogs.

There is a simple logic experiment to prove this wrong:

Let's say that 1,000,000 people are privy to this "conspiracy." And that there is a 99.99% chance that they will not divulge it, assuming the penalty is death for doing so. Put it into Google Calculator (0.9999^1000000) and the result is 3.7*10^-42% chance of divulging. And Drew, the temperature trends show that over the course of decades, temperature is increasing at rates never before achieved.

What??

Firstly your data is something you randomly came up with right then. There's no percentage deciding whether or not someone will say something...

Secondly I dunno if it's a typo or what, but your maths is completely wrong- if there's a 0.01% chance of divultion then the chance of NOT divulging would be 3.7 x 10^-42 %, and the chance of it being divulged would be essentially 100%. I don't understand your reasoning but I think that might be what you were trying to say?

Anyway take a good read of what's already been posted in the thread. Global warming, is, for a start, an outdated term because it implies EVERYWHERE is heating up, which is not true. Climate change is something that's happening, but from what I've seen climate models seem to be unreliable and often exagerate the effects of the change.

1,000,000 each have a .9999 probability event A (not speaking)

so one person's probability is .9999

two people's is .9999^2

one million people's is .9999^1000000, or essentially zero. It is almost statistically impossible for the secret to be kept in that scenario.


That said, there's little doubt among the scientific community (not including interest group addled "researchers") that climate change is happening, the effects are all around us. What we do disagree about is the exact causes and eventual effects.

If it makes you feel better, polar bears were doomed anyway, niche predators always are, they're hyperspecialized and never survive climate shifts.

Jabba the Hutt wrote:

DragonEye4 wrote:

titaniccreatures wrote:

Drew980 wrote:I would not say Global Warming has not been disproved, I would say it remains unproven. There simply has not been enough time to estimate whether the contents of the theory are actually provable.

So basicly it is a world-wide accepted conspiracy?

If your primary source of news is Tea-Party blogs.

There is a simple logic experiment to prove this wrong:

Let's say that 1,000,000 people are privy to this "conspiracy." And that there is a 99.99% chance that they will not divulge it, assuming the penalty is death for doing so. Put it into Google Calculator (0.9999^1000000) and the result is 3.7*10^-42% chance of divulging. And Drew, the temperature trends show that over the course of decades, temperature is increasing at rates never before achieved.

I doubt that a million people has the knowledge to justifiably judge whether or not Global Warming is in effect or not. Not everyone is a scientist that has access to their own satellites and has been tracking and analyzing Earth's average global temperature. Not only that, more than a million people live in the U.S. alone, not to mention other countries; and look where we are. Hundreds of thousands still believe in creationism and that being homosexual is a sin, and that they will burn in the purging flames of hell.

StinkyPachem wrote:

Jabba the Hutt wrote:

DragonEye4 wrote:

titaniccreatures wrote:

Drew980 wrote:I would not say Global Warming has not been disproved, I would say it remains unproven. There simply has not been enough time to estimate whether the contents of the theory are actually provable.

So basicly it is a world-wide accepted conspiracy?

If your primary source of news is Tea-Party blogs.

There is a simple logic experiment to prove this wrong:

Let's say that 1,000,000 people are privy to this "conspiracy." And that there is a 99.99% chance that they will not divulge it, assuming the penalty is death for doing so. Put it into Google Calculator (0.9999^1000000) and the result is 3.7*10^-42% chance of divulging. And Drew, the temperature trends show that over the course of decades, temperature is increasing at rates never before achieved.

I doubt that a million people has the knowledge to justifiably judge whether or not Global Warming is in effect or not. Not everyone is a scientist that has access to their own satellites and has been tracking and analyzing Earth's average global temperature. Not only that, more than a million people live in the U.S. alone, not to mention other countries; and look where we are. Hundreds of thousands still believe in creationism and that being homosexual is a sin, and that they will burn in the purging flames of hell.

Honestly, IMO the hyperconservatives should burn in the purging flames of Hell.

StinkyPachem wrote:

Jabba the Hutt wrote:

DragonEye4 wrote:

titaniccreatures wrote:

Drew980 wrote:I would not say Global Warming has not been disproved, I would say it remains unproven. There simply has not been enough time to estimate whether the contents of the theory are actually provable.

So basicly it is a world-wide accepted conspiracy?

If your primary source of news is Tea-Party blogs.

There is a simple logic experiment to prove this wrong:

Let's say that 1,000,000 people are privy to this "conspiracy." And that there is a 99.99% chance that they will not divulge it, assuming the penalty is death for doing so. Put it into Google Calculator (0.9999^1000000) and the result is 3.7*10^-42% chance of divulging. And Drew, the temperature trends show that over the course of decades, temperature is increasing at rates never before achieved.

I doubt that a million people has the knowledge to justifiably judge whether or not Global Warming is in effect or not. Not everyone is a scientist that has access to their own satellites and has been tracking and analyzing Earth's average global temperature. Not only that, more than a million people live in the U.S. alone, not to mention other countries; and look where we are. Hundreds of thousands still believe in creationism and that being homosexual is a sin, and that they will burn in the purging flames of hell.

Figures range, but from what I've heard, between 30 and 40% of Americans still believe in YEC, meaning more like hundreds of millions of people believe in creationism when other countries are included.

If you look on a large scale, our planet has gone through heating a cooling shifts before, nothing is new not to mention atmospheric pressure. Insects use to be way larger and the promident species, atmosphere changed which caused insect size to diminish in size, then came the age of the reptile, Antartica use to be a tropical paradise filled with miniature dinosaurs most of what was with in between the Tropic of cancer and the tropic of capricorn was desert wastes. then as time went on Raptors began sprouting feathers, and Dinosaurs dying out, mammals growing in numbers and in larger and larger sizes, and the earth began cooling more and more, until giant ice glaciers covered most of the earth. Now we've reached the stage that the giant ice glaciers are have melted away and still are in some extent.

yea man's green house gasses might have caused some bit to the change in the atmosphere. but in reality...it's a natural occurance. it's a cycle, and alive today will see a drastic change in climate.

So my point is DONT WORRY ABOUT IT!
here...maybe George Carlin can get my point across better then me


Oh and btw I'm in Alaska, and this year we have had one of hte coldest winters on record and have even have had some record snow falls.

So my point is DONT WORRY ABOUT IT!

We have to be sure we're not causing it and if we are (I'd say it appears so, but I'm no expert) take action as soon as possible to minimize the effects before it gets really serious. Not worrying about it won't fix it - this is probably the right approach to take in other situations, not global warming.

And again, one year doesn't make a difference. Yes, in most of USA it's been very warm but in Europe really cold this year (colder than last year in some parts like mine). That doesn't matter much.